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The Day Advances | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - January 2020
The day advanced as if to light some work of mine Thoreau, Walden This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701 Secured physical gold – $17 252 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755 Bitcoin – $153 530 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under) Global shares – 22.6% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under) Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.5% International bonds – 9.5% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 6.6% Bitcoin – 8.2% Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month. [Chart] This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement. [Chart] As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record. [Chart] The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period. Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month. These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings. The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio. If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach. There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue. While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present. Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio. There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues. Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin). The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind. I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging. The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
Around 35 per cent of all portfolio assets are effectively unhedged - This includes Bitcoin, unhedged gold holdings, and unhedged international equities and bonds. All other things being equal, if the Australian dollar falls, the value of this part of the portfolio rises in relative terms.
The remaining 65 per cent of assets are either hedged or Australian-held assets - This includes Australian equities, Australian bonds, as well as international equities and bonds hedged back to the Australian dollar.
International equities are partially hedged - The portfolio has around $525 000 in international equities currently. Of this, around $140 000 is hedged back into Australian dollars - a hedging position of 27 per cent.
International bonds are nearly fully hedged - consistent with their portfolio role and discussed here.
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard. The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging. [Chart] As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area. There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3% Summary This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year. The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked. The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased. Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours. Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance. This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking. Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics. During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Casting Shadows Before | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - October 2019
And coming events cast their shadows before. Thomas Campbell, Loichiel’s Warning (1802) This is my thirty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals. Portfolio goals My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a passive income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) - Achieved
$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $773 028 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $44 094 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $80 383 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $108 964 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $139 698 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $27 138 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $259 380 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 860 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 847 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 412 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $98 755 Secured physical gold – $15 979 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $17 791 Bitcoin – $147 130 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 931 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 240 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 410 Total value: $1 760 040 (+$30 378) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.0% (3.0% under) Global shares – 22.6% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under) Total shares – 70.1% (4.9% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 9.9% Total bonds – 14.7% (0.3% under) Gold – 6.5% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 14.9% (4.9% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments This month the portfolio grew by just over $30 000 in total, building on the previous month of growth. [Chart] The equity component of the portfolio has grown, including through new contributions and another part of the June distributions being 'averaged into' equity markets. The only other major changes in the monthly value of the portfolio have been the result of gains in the value of equity holdings and a sharp upward movement in the price of Bitcoin. [Chart] This month marks the notional passing of one of the additional FI benchmarks set at the beginning of the year - 'Credit card FI'. This benchmark is estimated on the basis of reaching a portfolio value where the annual assumed real return of 4.19 per cent could in theory fully meet average annual credit card expenses of $73 000. This benchmark is notionally met in that sense, and it is also close to being met on a far more practical and tangible basis also. The actual gap between a trailing average of distributions paid and card expenses has now fallen to less than $300 per month. [Chart] Even so, it is important to note that this narrow gap could stabilise or modestly rise once forthcoming December distributions form part of the average, replacing a higher placeholder assumption based on June's figures. Quarterly distributions from Betashare's A200 ETF and Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS) were paid this month. These distributions, in addition to another staggered reinvestment of June distributions were invested in the market. They have been mostly placed into VAS, to obtain the benefit of accessing a slightly wider range of holdings at a comparable fee, as well as to reduce any (admittedly small) risk and volatility in future returns and payout levels between A200 and VAS. To maintain the target balance for international (40 per cent) and domestic equities (40 per cent), a smaller additional investment was also made into Vanguard's International shares ETF (VGS). Sighting harbours and early arrivals - revising the FI target date A focus of thought in the two months ahead will be the expected timing of reaching my FI Objective #2. This goal is current set to July 2023. In setting this original target timeframe I used approximate and conservative estimates, based on previous average total portfolio increases over the past five years. This method effectively ignored extra contributions arising from any above average portfolio distributions, or any return impacts, given the relatively short time until both targets. As such, it represented a clear simplification of reality. Achievement of the target - I reasoned at the time - would inevitably be impacted by market fluctuations and this meant constructing spuriously exact yearly forecasts of the impacts of average returns would not be worthwhile. What has become clear since meeting Objective #1 more than 18 months earlier than expected is that more rapid progress was also being made towards Objective #2. To understand and explore this progress further I have applied a few estimation techniques to start understanding possible revised trajectories. These estimate approaches included:
simple extrapolation from past progress over a long time period
using the median monthly progress since 2017; and
assuming no investment returns at all, and reliance just on contributions.
The results of the different estimation approaches being applied were broadly consistent, with projections of Objective #2 being reached at least two years ahead of schedule. A further interesting fact was that average assumed investment returns alone would be sufficient to carry the portfolio to the original target level by mid-2023. Indeed, even if the portfolio suffered a one-off 33 per cent fall in equity values tomorrow - as is quite possible - modelling suggested the target would still be likely to be met early. With two months to go until a full portfolio review, this indicates that it may be useful to reset this target to an estimate that more closely aligns with progress to date, whilst still retaining a respectful regard for the critical role that market variations can have in this phase of the journey. Casting the shadow before - a better approach for estimating distributions? At this time of year December distributions begin to cast their shadow forward, as the previous July distributions recede. Seeking to estimate the approximate level of future distributions has been an ongoing interest, and has been looked at previously in both the Set and Drift and Wind in the Sails posts. The level of distributions is a solid and important marker of how far the journey has progressed. This month I found time to fully develop an expanded data set to allow a better estimate of likely distributions. From the website of the relevant Vanguard retail funds, as well as the sites for the ETFs VAS, VGS and A200 I was able to download the available histories of distributions. These stretched back a decade for some funds, and five years for VAS and VGS, but substantially shorter for A200. This enables the estimation of average payouts (in cents per unit) to be reached. In turn, this allows an estimate to be made of the level and components of the December distributions, using average values. This is set out below. [Chart] There are significant boundaries of uncertainty around this estimate, and some simplifications. For example, it excludes Ratesetter and smaller individual shareholdings (which represent about 10 per cent of the holdings). It also assumes for simplicity equal ETF payments through the year. With these caveats and using this approach, the total December distributions are estimated to be around $19 500, out of an annual forecast distributions of $49 800. Progress Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 110.1% 150.0% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 88.9% 121.1% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 101.1% 137.7% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.9% Summary Coming events do cast their shadows before them. Even an initial review of progress towards my remaining financial objective has left me with a sense of time foreshortening, and the shadow reaching out towards the present. At some point this shadow will start inevitably and undeniably reaching into and touching my daily life. At the same time as this sense grows, markets feel delicately poised, with risks of bubbles, and unusual events such as required US Federal Reserve support for the inter-bank market, and a rare failure of a recent tender of short term Australian Treasury notes to reach its target issuance. Despite these types of events and historically low bond rates globally surveyed investor equity expectations remain at elevated levels. It often pays dividends at times such as this to look to the past. This is an opportunity provided by listening to Yale University's Robert Shiller in this recent podcast as well as by reading his new work Narrative Economics focused around the historical and continuing role of stories in markets and finance. Stories - such as a 'clear' link between a countries' economic growth and share market performance - can often be plausible, commonly held, and incorrect. Another informative podcast was an interview with the Head of Product Strategy for Vanguard Australia by Equity Mates. Further interesting insights into the development of modern portfolio theory and efficient markets theory can be accessed in these Youtube videos with interviews of Markowitz and Eugene Fama. The latter makes the point that the growth in indexing is likely to lead to active managers facing higher competition from more skilled investors, as the less skilled depart, making outperformance tougher rather than easier. This month I was pleased to be mentioned in this short but practical piece on Australian FI seekers, alongside Aussie HIFIRE and Aussie Firebug. For a striking visual tool around planning for FI and safe withdrawal rates, this US-based calculator also occupied some of my time. It gives a unique and simple demonstration of the different probabilities and tradeoffs that can be embedded in reaching FI. Ordinary Dollar here in Australia has some similar calculators. Without seeing coming events, they represent a useful way to look further over the horizon. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Vechain in the last 30 Days: Apotheosis, Blockchain X, BMW, University partnership, DApp ecosystem, BitOcean ICO, Carbon banking, Live use cases, Early adopter rewards and more
This post is for those who are new to Cryptocurrency or want to find out more about VeChain. The text "VeChain" has been banned in this subreddit for the last 30 days. For more details about the ban itself, please visit this cryptocurrencymeta post.Changes have been made and official channels of communications have been opened up to prevent this from happening in the future. All feedback is welcome, and all discussion is encouraged, but please no moon-posting, ridiculous price speculation or baseless FUD. Looking forward to answering any questions you guys have :) VeChain Foundation COO Kevin Feng is holding a Business AMA with Boxmining today, so new information is coming very soon.
VeChain is more than a supply chain solution
VeChainThor is a global enterprise level public blockchain platform
Focus on enterprise & government level adoption
Focus on safety and security
New DApps: VeVid, VeVOT and VeSCC - Foundation layer for new ecosystem
New ICO: BitOcean - Fiat/VET on-ramp
New partners: BMW, Yida Group, Australian 188 Business Alliance Association
New VeResearch partner: Awaiting formal announcement from University
New initiative: Carbon Bank alongside DNV GL, Tsinghua University, and government agencies
It has loads of useful information and a well produced introduction video. I would highly recommend reading through the website to get an idea of the scope of what VeChainThor is trying to accomplish.
"We are controlled by the few, the powerful and the greedy. We should be free. Free to choose, to trade, to create. It is time for a new world, a world founded on safety and security. A world where everything you do creates power, power for all. And you, you will decide the shape of this world. The power to change the future, is in your hands. VeChain." VeChain Introduction Video
What is Blockchain X?
Blockchain X is a global enterprise level public blockchain platform. VeChainThor is referring to their network/protocol as Blockchain X, to differentiate it from Bitcoin (Blockchain 1.0) and Ethereum (Blockchain 2.0 = Blockchain 1.0 + Smart Contracts).
Blockchain X = Blockchain 2.0 + IoT + AI + VET/VeThor = A living digital ecosystem
IoT = senses - touch, vision, taste, smell, sound (collect real world information from RFID/NFC/QR etc.)
VET/VeThor = bone marrow/blood - generate blood & circulate (value transfer on the network)
AI = brain - information synthesis (automation of network with deep learning)
VeChainThor: the top candidate for enterprise and government level adoption of Blockchain
VeChainThor has an extremely strong development plan geared towards enterprise and government level adoption. If successful in their execution, I see VeChain being the leading cryptoasset comparable to Ethereum in size. The reasons I believe they will succeed are due to their ecosystem development, innovative governance model, robust economic model and strong strategic partnerships. The evidence of their success is snowballing with each new enterprise level partner and client.
DApps & Ecosystem development
The infrastructure layer has adoption in mind at the very core. Governments and enterprises will prioritise safety and security before venturing into blockchain adoption. (Mentioned in the introduction video.) The core DApps, VeVID (Verified identity, KYC/AML), VeVOT (Voting, Governance tool) and VeSCC (Smart Contract Certification, Regulatory compliance) provide the safety and security that governments and enterprises will demand. Blockchain X will have built-in KYC/AML, Governance and Regulation compliance. This sets it apart from other protocols and ICO platforms.
The governance model is a balanced mix of decentralisation and centralisation. With problems such as Bitcoin's scaling debate, it appears that a purely decentralised governance structure may be inefficient. VeChain will use a new model of a decentralised system through centralised channels. The final decisions will be made in a decentralised democratic process through VeVOT by stakeholders with voting authority. I believe this model will be more widely adopted as it retains some of the efficient centralised channels that enterprise & government are familiar with, while still giving overall control to the network participants via a democratic voting system.
The two-token economic model splits the value in the network into VET and VeThor. VET's primary function is to generate VeThor. VeThor represents the underlying costs of using the VeChainThor blockchain. All smart contract execution and transactions will require payment with VeThor. Through the dynamic rate of VeThor generation, the fiat value of VeThor can be kept relatively stable. For example, if the VeThor price was too high due to an increase in enterprise demand, the VeThor generation rate can be increased, which increases supply, and brings the price back down. The opposite is also true if the VeThor price is too low. The way I see VET is a store of value, a representation of ownership of part of the network and the right to use the network. Whereas VeThor is the perfect medium of exchange and a pure utility token. By using a two-token system, VeThor can have a stable fiat value over a long period of time. A company will be able to calculate how much VeThor will be needed for a consistent fiat value year after year and will be able to budget for this. This is extremely useful for enterprise and government level adoption since it removes the inherent price volatility from a nascent market like crypto. VeChain also has a Node system, whereby holding VET generates additional rewards. Nodes of different levels will generate up to 200% additional VeThor compared to the base rate. This encourages long term staking in the network and decreases volatility. See the Apotheosis Part II article and X Series Node article for more information. A portion of VET supply will be locked up when nodes activate. Long term VET holders will not sell and downgrade their status. This decreased supply will lead to price increases. Early adopters (Deadline to stake: Before 20th March 2018) will be rewarded in the new X Series Node system. Features include exclusive participation in VeChain ecosystem project whitelists. (Something I'm excited about since I believe there will be a handful of reverse ICOs from traditional enterprise clients)
The three strategic partners each play a key role in VeChainThor's expansion. PWC has clients which make up 85% of the Fortune 500. DNV-GL is the preferred provider of those Fortune 500 companies for management systems certification services. PWC and DNV-GL will serve to introduce their enterprise clients to VeChain and increase adoption. BitOcean is positioning itself as a Fiat on-ramp for Crypto in Japan through physical ATMs and online exchanges, with approval by Japan's Financial Services Authority. BitOcean also plans to operate in China when regulations are finalised. BitOcean represents a Fiat/VET pairing that may serve to decouple VET/BTC and lead to independence of VET from the whims of BTC price.
Evidence of adoption to date: Existing clients & Investors
VeChain currently has 180 business opportunities in their pipeline for 2018 (compared to 4 use cases in 2016 and 22 in 2017). They have real uses cases and existing clients that range from medium to large enterprises. Revealed clients include Chinese Government Gui'an New Area project, BMW, Groupe Renault, DIG, Kuehne + Nagel, China Unicom, NRCC - State Tobacco, MLILY, Sunshine culture, Hubei Sanxin Cultural Media, Fanghuwang, YIDA future, Madeforgoods and iTaotaoke. Each of these partnerships deserve a detailed post on their own, they are all available on VeChain's Medium page. Taken together, it becomes clear what type of Ecosystem VeChainThor is trying to build. Jiangsu Printed Electronics and Xiamen Innov Information Technology are technology partners and I suspect will be mass producing the RFID/NFC chips. Breyer Capital and Fenbushi capital are the two featured investors on VeChain's website. Jim Breyer generally makes some pretty smart investment decisions. His only other crypto investments are Circle and Ethereum. Bonus news: This week they are presenting with DNV-GL a cold chain supply chain solution at the Global Food Safety Initiative conference 2018. Zoom in and you'll see VeChain Intelligent Control Display System. DNV-GL have also launched their new digital assurance solution, My Story™. Four top Italian wine producers are using My Story™ under supervision of the Italian wine authorities. Twitter and DNVGL link.
China is widely known to be anti-cryptocurrency but extremely pro-blockchain. China's "13th Five year plan 2016-2020" focuses on moving up in the value chain by abandoning old heavy industry and building up bases of modern information-intensive infrastructure, with blockchain and Smart Cities being a key technological focus. VeChain has achieved approval from the Government of the People's Republic of China with Gui'an New Area project, multiple mentions on state owned media (CCTV) and deals with state owned enterprises (China Tobacco). China will not fall behind in the international Blockchain race, they will finalise regulations and adopt Blockchain rapidly in the coming years. VeChain appears to be one of the leaders in the field, with their largest office in Shanghai and existing government connections.
Leader in the field
Last but not least, VeChain is leading the field in a number of areas.
Environmental responsibility: Carbon bank initiative with DNV-GL
In the interests of balanced discussion, I will update this section with skepticism I find in the comments below.
VeChain are working on a Whitepaper as part of their Q1 2018 goals. Information normally found in a Whitepaper has been made available through the development plan. I'm actually not too fussed about not having a whitepaper. For me evidence of enterprise adoption is a more useful indicator of how successful VeChainThor could be.
"No official wallet" "No Mainnet"
VeChainThor has been operating as a private blockchain since June 2016. Public VeChainThor Blockchain Launch, VeChain Wallet with VeThor Forge Function will be released in Q2 2018 according to the roadmap.
"VeChain are dumping their VET on the open market"
False FUD. Addressed by VeChain Foundation directly in the Official Telegram channel.
"Vote manipulation" "Shilling" "Brigading" "You're a paid shiller"
In the past VeChain Telegram Moderators wilfully participated in brigading, leading to the ban on the word "VeChain" for 30 days in cryptocurrency
It is difficult to differentiate manipulated behaviour and organic behaviour on Reddit, the moderators here do an amazing job getting rid of spam and detecting vote manipulation
The Official VeChain Foundation has stepped in to help Reddit moderators prevent VeChain vote manipulation
Official Telegram Rules: Brigading & Reddit links: We have a new policy regarding Reddit and 'brigading'. No brigading of any kind will be allowed. If you want to post a Reddit link, do so with the "np." prefix added to its URL, for example "np.reddit.com /CryptoCurrency". No spamming for upvotes, as it hurts both of our communities.
This is strictly enforced by Telegram moderators and results in a warning then an insta-ban for repeat offenders
USD (DXY) down 0.14%, EUR up 0.10%, GBP down 0.05%, JPY up 0.06%, CNY Onshore down 0.23%, CNH Offshore down 0.14%, AUD up 0.23%
VIX up 1.33% to 10.64
Gold up 0.02% to $1,323.57
Silver down 0.37% to $17.80
Copper down 1.24% to $294.40
WTI Crude up 0.65% to $49.62
Brent Crude up 0.34% to $55.35
Natural Gas down 0.10% to $3.06
Corn up 0.43% to $3.53/bu
Wheat up 0.51% to $4.46/bu
Bitcoin down 2.69% to $3,793.12
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~0.0bps at 1.347%, 10yr yields are unch at 2.188% and 30yr yields are up ~0.5bps at 2.792%
Japan 10yr yields 0.020%, up ~1.6bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.683%, up ~0.2bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.044%, up ~1.4bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.584%, up ~2.4bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.394%, down ~0.4bps on the day
What’s happening this morning? Things are pretty quiet (once again). The China Aug eco data came in soft and that weighed on Asian equities and is placing mild pressure on Eurozone stocks and US S&P futures (S&P futures are down only 1-2 points). Most of the major Asian indices ended lower although there were some pockets of green: TPX -0.32%, NKY -0.29%, Hang Seng -0.42%, SHCOMP -0.38%, Taiwan +0.2%, KOSPI +0.74%, Australia - 0.1%, and India was flattish. Korea was bolstered by tech (Samsung Electronics +1.37%, Hynix +1.45%, LG Display +2.74%, etc.). The major Eurozone indices are trading off small; the SXPP basic resources index is down >1% off China but otherwise there aren’t any other major sources of softness while media and retail are upside standouts (retail is being helped by the Next PLC news). The SNB tweaked its FX language in a slightly more hawkish direction, calling the CHF “highly valued” instead of “significantly overvalued”. Overall the broader macro narrative isn’t shifting dramatically despite China (in fact some see a silver lining in the data as this could make the gov’t more inclined to pursue growth-friendly policies). There were a ton of tax articles in the US but the outlook for that topic remains unchanged (the GOP blueprint is due out during the week of 9/25). The week’s last major (scheduled) catalyst hits at 8:30amET this morning (US Aug CPI) while next week’s main focus is the FOMC decision (Wed 9/20; the messaging around a Dec hike may be more hawkish than the market currently assumes).
Calendar for Thurs 9/14 – the focus will be on the BOE rate decision (7amET), the US CPI for Aug (8:30amET), Thy God Emperor Trump ’s trip to Florida, some analyst meetings (ANSS and GKOS), earnings (JBL and ORCL after the close), and sell-side conferences (Goldman Communacopia, Morgan Stanley Laguna, and RBC Industrials). o US CPI Thurs morning – the latest leg of the SPX rally has been spurred by proreflation forces as risk sentiment welcomed firmer inflation numbers (in China, India, Sweden, and the UK). Thus the US CPI (due out Thurs morning 8/14 at 8:30amET) needs to be at least inline (the St is modeling headline +0.3% M/M and core +0.2% M/M) and mild upside would likely be a net positive. Too much inflation though risks unsettling sentiment and if the Thurs CPI causes 12/13 FOMC FF hike odds to spike back >50% that would likely be met w/equity pressure.
Calendar for Fri 9/15 – the focus will be on the Eurozone trade balance for Jul (5amET), the US Empire Manufacturing index for Sept (8:30amET), US retail sales for Aug (8:30amET), US industrial production for Aug (9:15amET), US Michigan confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), US business inventories for Jul (10amET), and sell-side conferences (Morgan Stanley Laguna).
Top Headlines for Thursday
Economic data/monetary policy recap for Thurs 9/14 – there was a lot of data out this morning. The China data was soft and as a result JPMorgan is revising lower Q3 GDP forecasts for the country (see the full note: http://bit.ly/2x226Wk). IP for Aug came in at +6% (vs. JPM and the St +6.6%), retail sales rose 10.1% (vs. JPM +10.2% and the St +10.5%), and FAI climbed 7.8% YTD as of Aug (vs. JPM +8.3% and the St +8.2%). We revise down our current quarter growth forecast to 6.2%q/q saar (previously 6.6%q/q saar), or 6.7%oya (previously 6.8%oya). Meanwhile, we maintain our 4Q17 forecast at 6.2%q/q saar (or 6.6% in yoy terms), and the full-year growth forecast stays unchanged at 6.8%. Elsewhere on the economic front, Australian jobs data for Aug was solid although the UR held steady at 5.6% (http://bit.ly/2jpRH3x) and Eurozone new auto registration growth accelerated in Aug to +5.6% (vs. +2.7% in Jul). The SNB tweaked its CHF language and said the recent weakening "is helping to reduce, to some extent, the significant overvaluation of the currency" (previously the SNB has lamented the CHF’s “significant overvaluation” http://bit.ly/2eXuwIC). ECB’s Jan Smets said Eurozone inflation appears to have bottomed out (http://nyti.ms/2f8nynT). Greece said it would exceed prior primary budget surplus targets for this year (http://reut.rs/2x2RxUq). o What Thy God Emperor Trump Can Do to Prevent the Next Crash – the Fed doesn’t do enough to restrain out-of-control prices for stocks, houses, and other assets. http://nyti.ms/2eX7IsC o Fed officials admit they’ve lost some inflation credibility – a Bloomberg article recounts recent Fed remarks about how the institution’s credibility on inflation has started to weaken at the margin. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2y0yyru
Bipartisanship in Washington – can it last? Frustrated by the failure to pass repeal/replace, Thy God Emperor Trump has displayed a willingness to work w/Democrats. o Thy God Emperor Trump is extremely eager for a “win” after months of failure and if that requires him to work w/Democrats, so be it. “We learned this summer that keeping 50 or 52 Republicans (in the Senate) is not something that’s reliable,” Marc Short, Thy God Emperor Trump ’s liaison to Congress, told reporters this week. Reuters http://reut.rs/2x3yn0L o Thy God Emperor Trump prioritizes legislative wins over party purity – the new dynamic is creating uncertainty within the GOP ahead of the upcoming tax and budget battles. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2eWBspz o Fresh off striking a three-month fiscal deal with “Chuck and Nancy”, Thy God Emperor Trump agreed Wed night to work w/Democrats on a DACA/Dreamers compromise. Thy God Emperor Trump ’s outreach to Dems on immigration represents a “major political gamble” as this topic was the centerpiece of his campaign. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), an immigration hard-liner and early Thy God Emperor Trump supporter, wrote that if reports of a potential immigration deal are accurate, the president’s “base is blown up, destroyed, irreparable, and disillusioned beyond repair. No promise is credible” – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2y81heI
Taxes – Republicans are pushing forward w/an aggressive tax timeline (a blueprint is due out during the week of 9/25) but the overall plan remains inchoate. o “Thy God Emperor Trump urges quick action on tax plan that’s still in pieces” – the NYT notes that while there is a lot of eagerness for action on the tax front, Republicans are far from aligned on the details and a path through Congress isn’t apparent at the moment. NYT http://nyti.ms/2jpuApI o GOP “shudders” as Thy God Emperor Trump courts Dems on taxes – Republican leaders in Congress are pursuing a delicate tax strategy premised on passing a partisan bill and thus Thy God Emperor Trump ’s flirtation with “Chuck and Nancy” risks upending the effort. Politico http://politi.co/2h4gUfr o Thy God Emperor Trump signals openness to upper-income tax hikes in a bid to secure Democratic support - Thy God Emperor Trump on Wednesday expressed a willingness to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Thy God Emperor Trump met w/lawmakers on Wed and “repeated his willingness to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans several times”– Roll Call http://bit.ly/2y724fS o How low could the corporate tax rate go? A new study finds that eliminating all corporate tax breaks could only move the rate from ~35% now down to 26% - Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2vU7zNy
Paul Ryan speculation heats up – his job as Speaker seems secure but people are beginning to talk – The Hill. http://bit.ly/2x3NlUm
Healthcare struggles to advance in Congress – a bipartisan initiative to pass legislative aimed at fixing the ACA (rather than replacing it) was dealt a setback on Wed as two groups of Senators released the details of diametrically opposed plans. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2waLtdO
Russia’s war games sparks NATO alarm – Russia and Belarus are holding massive war games in what will be the largest display of Russian military power since the end of the Cold War. NATO and the West in general are worried that Russia is moving far more troops into Belarus than it intends to withdraw, establishing a permanent military presence in the country. Some are concerned that Moscow will use the exercise as cover for a more aggressive act (such as when Russia used exercises in ’14 to prepare for its annexation of Crimea). NYT http://nyti.ms/2vUXBLV
Venezuela stops accepting USD for oil payments – the gov’t is telling oil traders that it will no longer receive or send payments in dollars – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2f7zsP9
Volatility spike coming? The NYT profiles a hedge fund positioning for a large spike in volatility. http://nyti.ms/2eWeJd5
Company-specific news from Thurs morning 9/14. There are a few notable items in Europe. Next PLC shares are the top performing stock in the SXXP after raising its full-year earnings guidance. GVC Holdings also has a post-earnings bid. GKN PLC is higher following mgmt. changes. Autoliv shares are spiking ~8% after the co said it would pursue a split. On the downside, Morrison Supermarkets is leading on the SXXP on the downside after reporting while Experian is getting hit following the credit agency sell-off in the US on Wed. Hermes shares are weak after the co warned that a strong euro would weigh on financial results (the Hermes news was discussed in this article http://bit.ly/2y7L0q7). Munich Re is holding in well despite issuing a profit warning related to the US hurricanes.
Company-specific news from Wed night 9/13. There weren’t any major micro headlines. Munich Re (right before the US close on Wed) said the US hurricanes could cause it to post a loss in CQ3 and miss prior full-year guidance. BZH said new home sales/closings may be down Y/Y in its FQ4 as a result of the hurricanes but its overall tone stayed sanguine. EMR reported Aug underlying orders up a relatively healthy 9% (although mgmt. said Harvey/Irma had a neg. impact on business results towards the end of Aug and into Sept). The White House formally blocked the LSCC buyout (which isn’t a shock as CFIUS had already recommended scrapping the transaction). THC is exploring options, including a sale, according to a WSJ article. UNFI posted small EPS upside and CDNS named a new CFO.
AAPL – iPhone carrier discounts muted following the 8/X introductions on Tues – wireless carriers during prior iPhone cycles have been extremely aggressive in offering promotions and discounts but this time around the industry is staying (relatively) disciplined. Deals for the iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X have been pared back from the deals offered for the iPhone 7 – Reuters http://reut.rs/2wrCpMR o Toshiba, AAPL – Apple may contribute ~$3B of equity towards Bain’s purchase of the Toshiba memory business. This could make Toshiba the largest deal in AAPL’s history (exceeding the $3B it paid for Beats) – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2y0FGUC
EQT, RICE – DE Shaw is pushing for EQT to complete the RICE deal but then wants to see the combined company pursue a break-up (this contrasts w/Jana which wants to see EQT call off the RICE deal all together) – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2vVe56N
ALV to pursue split – the co said it aims to split into two companies under a strategic review announced on Thursday. Reuters http://nyti.ms/2y7O8Cj
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Sept 18
Calendar for the week of 9/18 – the main focus will be the FOMC decision (Wed 9/20). Balance sheet normalization is widely expected to commence coming out of this meeting but the bigger near-term wildcard will be messaging around a Dec hike (the Fed will likely suggest odds for a 12/13 hike that are higher than present market assumptions). The other big area of focus will be on the data front w/the flash PMI readings for Sept from Japan, Europe, and the US hitting Fri morning 9/22. The press will stay filled w/tax-related articles as Republicans gear up for publication of their blueprint (the GOP is set to unveil their tax plan during the week of Mon 9/25). The UN annual meeting kicks off in NYC on Tues 9/19 (Thy God Emperor Trump speaks 9/19); US officials will apparently hold talks on the sidelines of this event on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Calendar for Mon 9/18 – the focus will be on China’s Aug property prices (Mon morning), the US NAHB housing market index for Sept (10amET), analyst meetings (BA), and earnings (SCS after the close).
Calendar for Tues 9/19 – the focus will be on the German ZEW survey for Sept (5amET), opening day of the UN’s Generate Debate in NYC (Thy God Emperor Trump will speak this day at the UN), US eco data (Q2 current account, Aug housing starts, Aug import prices, and Aug building permits at 8:30amET), analyst meetings (AIR Canada, BA, BBY, BIG, and CARB), and earnings (APOG, AZO, and PGR pre-open and ADBE, AIR, ALOG, BBBY, and FDX after the close).
Calendar for Wed 9/20 – the focus will be on US existing home sales for Aug (10amET), the FOMC decision (2pmET press release/supplemental and 2:30pmET press conf.), analyst meetings (PPC), and earnings (GIS pre-open and MLHR after the close).
Calendar for Thurs 9/21 – the focus will be on the BOJ decision (Wed night/Thurs morning), the ECB economic bulletin (4amET), US FHFA home prices for Jul (9amET), the US Leading Index for Jul (9amET), the Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), and earnings (MANU pre-open and PSDO, YOGA after the close).
Calendar for Fri 9/22 – the focus will be on the Eurozone flash PMIs for Sept (4amET), the OPEC compliance meeting (Saudi Arabia could make a proposal to monitor exports in addition to production), the US flash PMIs for Sept (9:45amET), a few Fed speakers (Williams, George, and Kaplan), and earnings (FINL and KMX before the open).
Calendar for Sun 9/24 – the focus will be on the German elections.
Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
US inflation – the Aug CPI will hit Thurs 9/14.
Russia military exercise in Belarus – 9/14-20.
UN meeting – the UN annual meeting begins Tues 9/19 in NYC (Thy God Emperor Trump speaks 9/19).
Fed meeting – decision out Wed Sept 20. There will be a press conf. and supplemental. The Fed is expected to announce commencement of balance sheet shrinkage at this meeting.
BOJ decision – Thurs morning 9/21
Brexit – May could deliver an important Brexit speech around Thurs 9/21.
Flash PMIs for Sept – Fri 9/22
OPEC/non-OPEC compliance meeting – Sept 22.
German elections – German federal election Sept 24.
US taxes – Republicans expected to publish tax plan during week of Mon 9/25.
Yellen delivers keynote at NABE conference in Cleveland. Tues 9/26. 12pmET.
US inflation – the Aug PCE will hit Fri 9/29.
Catalonia parliament independence vote – Sun 10/1.
China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Autos – US Sept auto sales get reported Tues 10/3; Ford/F’s CEO will also be giving a strategic update on that same day (this will be the first major update from the new CEO at Ford).
Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. Wed 10/4. 3:15pmET.
ECB meeting minutes – Thurs 10/5.
WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Iran – Thy God Emperor Trump will certify whether Iran is complying w/the nuclear agreement around mid- Oct.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting.
US Q3 GDP report – Fri 10/27
Fed meeting – decision Wed 11/1 (no press conf. or supplemental).
Thy God Emperor Trump trip to China – he is scheduled to visit China in November.
GE – the co will likely hold an analyst meeting in Nov at which it will provide a refresh of its long-term financial guidance.
OPEC meeting – the next formal OPEC leaders meeting is Nov 30 (a decision on extending the production agreement beyond Mar ’18 could be reached at this gathering).
US gov’t funding/debt ceiling – current legislation funds the gov’t and suspends the debt ceiling until 12/8 (the debt ceiling is unlikely to become binding again until “well into” 2018).
Fed meeting – decision Wed Dec 13. There will be a press conf. and supplemental.
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Dec 14.
Tech Events – calendar of events coming up over the next few weeks
Goldman Communacopia Conf. Sept 12-14. NYC.
ANSS analyst meeting – Thurs 9/14.
JBL, ORCL earnings – Thurs night 9/14.
ADBE earnings – Tues night 9/19.
BBY, CARB analyst meeting – Tues 9/19
PSDO earnings – Thurs night 9/21
RHT earnings – Mon night 9/25
MU earnings – Tues night 9/26
UBNT analyst meeting – Tues 9/26
AMAT, PANW analyst meeting – Wed 9/27
ACN earnings – Thurs morning 9/28
SGH earnings – Thurs night 9/28
INTU analyst meeting – Tues 10/3
PAYX earnings – Tues morning 10/3
TTD analyst meeting – Wed 10/4
TECD, WDAY analyst meeting – Tues 10/10
BOX, HPQ analyst meeting – Thurs 10/12
Full catalyst list
Thurs Sept 14 – China retail sales, IP, and FAI for Aug (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Thurs Sept 14 – Eurozone auto registration figures for Aug. 2amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – SNB rate decision. 3:30amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – BOE rate decision. 7amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – US CPI for Aug. 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – analyst meetings: ANSS, GKOS, YUM
Thurs Sept 14 – earnings after the close: JBL, ORCL
Thurs Sept 28 – Eurozone confidence measures for Sept. 5amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – German inflation for Sept. 8amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US Q2 data revisions (GDP, PCE, etc.). 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US advance goods trade balance for Aug. 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – analyst meetings: AEE, AFL
Thurs Sept 28 – earnings before the open: ACN, MKC, MTN, RAD
Thurs Sept 28 – earnings after the close: SGH
Fri Sept 29 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Sept 29 – German jobs numbers for Sept. 3:55amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Eurozone CPI for Sept. 5amET.
Fri Sept 29 – US personal income/spending for Aug. 8:30amET.
Fri Sept 29 – US PCE for Aug. 8:30amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Chicago PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Michigan Confidence for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Sept 29 – analyst meetings: CMP
Sat Sept 30 – China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 2 – China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone manufacturing PMI for Sept. 4amET.
Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone unemployment rate for Aug. 5amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US construction spending for Aug. 10amET.
Tues Oct 3 – Eurozone PPI for Aug. 5amET.
Tues Oct 3 – US auto sales for Sept.
Tues Oct 3 – analyst meetings: F/Ford (Ford CEO to host strategic update), INTU, SHW
Tues Oct 3 – earnings before the open: PAYX
Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone services PMI for Sept. 4amET.
Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone retail sales for Aug. 5amET.
Wed Oct 4 – RBI rate decision. 5amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US ADP jobs report for Sept. 8:15amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US services PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Oct 4 – Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. 3:15pmET.
Wed Oct 4 – analyst meetings: MNK, TTD
Wed Oct 4 – earnings before the open: MON, PEP
Wed Oct 4 – earnings after the close: RECN
Thurs Oct 5 – ECB meeting minutes. 7:30amET.
Thurs Oct 5 – US factory orders and durable goods for Aug. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 5 – analyst meetings: BKH, CLX, LUK
Thurs Oct 5 – earnings before the open: STZ
Thurs Oct 5 – earnings after the close: COST, YUMC
Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, WDAY, WMT
Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: FAST
Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, JPM, Tata Consultancy.
Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
Fri Oct 13 – European trading updates: Man Group
Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, PNC, WFC
Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
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Friday, 25th May 2018
→DOJ’s Bitcoin Price Manipulation Probe a ‘Good Thing’: Mike Novogratz Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz is optimistic that the US DOJ's recently-launched probe into allegations of bitcoin price manipulation will contribute to the LT health of the crypto market. → Revolut App Adds XRP, Bitcoin Cash to Crypto Options - CoinDeskMobile banking app Revolut now lets users buy, sell and hold Ripple's XRP and bitcoin cash, in addition to bitcoin, litecoin and ether. → Singapore Warns 8 Exchanges Over Unregistered Securities Trading - CoinDeskSingapore's central bank has warned eight digital token exchanges and an ICO issuer to stop trading tokens deemed unauthorized securities. → Ontology And NEO Announce New Huge Partnership Yesterday afternoon, we saw reports of a huge partnership between Ontology and NEO hit the headlines. Daily Performance https://preview.redd.it/u52izib4f0011.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=90e65d617691193aef057ac2e1b13ae9531a79c7 Market 25-05-2018 Over the past several days the market has softened up significantly, losing about USD50 billion from the beginning of the week, stabilising today at USD340 billion. However, the down move has been an orderly one, and there has been no clear catalyst for the sell-off, other than the typical uncertainties and noise surrounding regulation. There has been no noticeable pick up in volumes, which remain light at around USD20 billion. Option volatility have not budged from the high 70%s despite the sharp down move, and high correlation across cryptos still indicates that the entire market is moving up and down in tandem with BTC. There simply seems to be a clear lack of conviction in terms of market direction. The above parameters continues to show a consolidative range trade for the near term. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
→ No Investors Affected, Hard to Charge Cryptocurrency Exchange UPbit Experts in the cryptocurrencies of South Korea have stated that it will be difficult for the government and local financial authorities to file charges against UPbit, given that no investors were affected. → Bank of England Issues Working Paper on Central Bank Digital CurrenciesThe Bank of England released a staff working paper, laying out various scenarios of possible risks and financial stability issues of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Daily Performance Market 22-05-2018 The cryptocurrencies' market continued to consolidate at current levels, with today seeing a small pull back across the board. Volumes continue to be on the low side with only 16B USD changing hands over the last 24 hours. ETH/BTC spread seems to stabilise at around the 0.083 level for the past week, which shows there are no strong forces in play. High correlation across large cap names all moving up in tandem also indicate a lack of news and conviction in terms of market direction.Also, realised volatility on BTC has dropped further, with implied vols softening up further (ATM< 80%). Both correlation and volatility indicate that for the short term, the overall market is subdued but is likely to drift towards the path of last resistance, which is higher. Having said that, quiet low volume environments are vulnerable to sudden external shocks - be wary of sudden large gaps in market movement! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BTC
After last year’s massive rally, Bitcoin is currently consolidating the gains inside a large range of $6,505-$10,044.
The Dow rose 399.28, or 1.58%, to 25,709.27, the Nasdaq gained 84.07, or 1.15%, to 7,421.46, and the S&P 500 advanced 32.30, or 1.18%, to 2,779.60. Stocks opened with solid gains and continued to move higher throughout the morning. During the afternoon, the averages continued to gain strength and move to their best levels of the session. Since the market's correction earlier in the month, the Nasdaq has recaptured its entire loss and the Dow and S&P have almost done the same. For the month of February, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is now in positive territory (+0.1%), while the S&P 500 and the Dow are down a little more than 1.5% apiece. Still, that's up from losses of around 8.7% at their lowest points on February 8. 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors settled in positive territory, with the top-weighted technology (+1.6%) and financials (+1.5%) sectors being among the top-performing groups. The industrials sector (+1.4%) and the lightly-weighted telecom services sector (+1.8%) also outperformed. The real estate (+0.4%) and materials (+0.5%) sectors underperformed, but still finished in positive territory. Among the noteworthy gainers was HPQ, which gained 6% after JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $28 price target, citing valuation following the company's Q1 results. Also higher was QCOM, which rose about 6% after chairman of the board Paul E. Jacobs sent a letter to AVGO's CEO Hock Tan providing Qualcomm's response to the second meeting between the two companies about a potential deal. Among the notable losers was MDXG, which fell 6% after Bloomberg said that the U.S. Department of Justice is scrutinizing the company's sales and distribution practices. Also lower after reporting quarterly results was DF, which fell 13%. Elsewhere, equities had a strong showing, with the Euro Stoxx 50 moving lower by 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.19%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's Shanghai Composite jumped 1.0.74% and 1.75%, respectively.
The dollar inched higher on Monday in choppy trading ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data and events this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony.
EUUSD: +0.14% to 1.2309
GBP/USD: -0.03% to 1.3962
USD/CAD: +0.41% to 1.2682
U.S. Treasuries recorded their third consecutive day of gains, though the market finished well below its best levels of the day. The yield on the 10-yr note finished one basis point lower at 2.86% after trading as low as 2.83% in the early morning. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-yr note also lost one basis point, dropping to 2.23%.
2-yr: -1 bp to 2.23%
5-yr: -1 bp to 2.61%
10-yr: -1 bp to 2.86%
30-yr: UNCH at 3.16%
Oil rose on Monday, hitting a three-week high, supported by strong U.S. demand and comments from Saudi Arabia that it would continue to curb production in line with OPEC-led efforts.
Mar WTI Crude is up 0.49% on the day. Futures settle $0.31 higher to $63.86/barrel. In other energy, Mar Natural Gas settled up $0.02 at $2.68/MMBtu
On the metals:
Apr Gold gained $2.30 to settle at $1332.60/oz, while Mar silver gained $0.07 to $16.55/oz
Mar Copper dropped $0.01 to $3.20/lb
Mar Corn settled unchanged at $3.69/bu.
Mar soy settled flat at $10.46/bu.
Mar Wheat settled up $0.01 at $4.74/bu.
The crypto markets are climbing back up today, with all of the top ten coins listed on CoinMarketCap in the green. Bitcoin has broken $10,000 again, trading at around $10,342.40 and up 9 percent over a 24-hour period by press time.
Bitcoin: $10,397.60 (24hr: +7.75%)
Ethereum: $870.14 (24hr: +3.23%)
Ripple: $0.95 (24hr: +1.63%)
Nasdaq +7.5% YTD
Dow +4.0% YTD
S&P 500 +4.0% YTD
Russell +1.6% YTD
VIX fell 0.69 today to close at 15.80, while the underlying SPX index gained 32.30 to close at $2779.60, a 1.18% increase.
614,488 VIX option contracts traded, 40.44% of the typical daily volume for the product. Calls made up 65.7% of the volume.
VIX futures contango settled at 0.
FIT reports Q4 adjusted EPS (2c), consensus 0c, sees Q1 adjusted EPS (21c)-(18c), consensus (9c).
On Tuesday, investors will receive a number of economic reports, including Durable Orders for January and International Trade in Goods for January at 8:30 AM ET, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December and the FHFA Housing Price Index for December at 9:00 AM ET, and the Consumer Confidence Index for February at 10:00 AM ET. In addition, Jerome Powell will make his first appearance as Fed Chairman in front of the House Financial Services Committee. Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took0.22seconds.
Here's why you shouldn't believe 'safe haven' claims about Bitcoin
The sharp rise and subsequent fall in Bitcoin’s value places it among the greatest market bubbles in history. It has outpaced the 17th-century tulip mania, the South Sea bubble of 1720, and the more recent Japanese asset price and dot-com bubbles. The rapid price rise garnered attention from an increasing number of academics and investment advisers. Some have suggested that Bitcoin improves portfolio performance and can even be used as a potential “safe haven” asset in place of gold. Our work finds that much of this research is flawed and overlooks some important attributes that any investor should consider before allocating funds to such a speculative investment. This is particularly relevant if investing in Bitcoin is rationalised as a prospective safe haven in times of market turmoil.
Hard to value
The first attribute investors consider is how to value Bitcoin. Typically, assets are valued based on the cash flows they produce. Bitcoin lacks this property. This leads to ongoing debate as to the true value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Some, such as the Winklevoss twins and other Bitcoin entrepreneurs, believe the price will soar far higher. Others, including Nobel prize winner Eugene Fama and esteemed investor Warren Buffett, believe the real value is closer to zero. Another Nobel winner, Robert Shiller, suggests the correct answer is “ambiguous”. There is even wide variation in price across the various Bitcoin exchanges. This is common in fragmented markets and makes it difficult for an investor to find the best market price at any point in time – a process called price discovery.
High price volatility
Bitcoin prices also have a high level of variation (volatility) when compared to other possible investments including bonds, stocks and gold. Even tech stocks such as Twitter, which are considered relatively volatile, are found to have less price variation. This adds to the difficulty investors face when trying to value Bitcoin and any portfolios that contain it. This is of particular concern given the large daily losses that Bitcoin has experienced in its relatively short life. The largest one-day decline experienced by the popular S&P500 index since 2011 is 4.2%. Bitcoin has had nearly 200 days that were worse (and over 60 days worse than the biggest decline in the gold price of 10.2%). Put another way, Bitcoin has had 200 days worse than the worst day on the stock market. This hardly seems like an enticing investment for most.
Investors should also consider the ease with which they are able to buy and sell any assets in which they invest. One method used to measure this liquidity attribute is the bid-ask spread – the difference in the price at which one is able to buy and sell the asset. More liquid assets have a narrow bid-ask spread. Bitcoin’s bid-ask spread varies from one exchange to another, but in general it is much larger than for other assets. While bid-ask spreads provide one measure of implicit trading costs, investors also consider the explicit transaction fees they are charged when trading. Transaction fees for trading traditional investments are typically well known and have trended down over time. While Bitcoin fees have recently declined, they have proven to be highly variable, ranging from over $30 to under $1. The time taken to process a transaction can also be greater than 78 minutes. This is much longer than for stocks or bonds and creates another layer of uncertainty for investors.
Only for the most risk-loving
Bitcoin is harder to value, more volatile, less liquid, and costlier to transact than other assets in normal market conditions. Potential investors should be wary and carefully consider whether such highly speculative assets are appropriate additions to any portfolio. Given safe havens are typically in demand during financial crisis, when markets are more volatile and less liquid, it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin is even worth considering as a safe-haven asset.
Barron's Question: Is there a place for Bitcoin in a portfolio? Shiller: "People say Bitcoin is a bubble. If it is, so is gold. That bubble has lasted thousands of years. Bitcoin has one fundamental problem as a medium of exchange: It's very volatile. It's functioning more on enthusiasm than true merit. We've invented fiat currencies led by central banks who appear to be quite responsible." http://www.barrons.com/articles/who-says-this-stock-market-is-overpriced-1507956689
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 79%. (I'm a bot)
First, while Bitcoin is often described as an emerging currency, its illiquidity - you can't just buy groceries with it - makes it as an asset best-likened to gold. Despite attempts to calculate Bitcoin's intrinsic value, the extent to which ambiguous probability governs its future enthusiasm therefore shows Bitcoin has two purposes: being a store of value, and being another volatile asset on which speculators can bet. Nobel economics laureate Robert Shiller recently explained in a New York Times article how few people use Bitcoin as a store of value. As in gold, those who dabble in Bitcoin must therefore decide their trades using the questionable methods of technical analysis, or the spectral intuition of market momentum. In another recent New York Times article, a cryptocurrency enthusiast described investing in them as "The ultimate short trade," for "The worse regular civilization does the better crypto does." The grand irony of Bitcoin as fodder for libertarian distrust is that its existence depends on digital infrastructure as we know it, which, like all infrastructure, is maintained by government regulation or spending. Other than falsely stimulating libertarian fantasies of a currency free from governmental interference, Bitcoin, as an immaterial experiment, offers little warranting its material cost.
How do we evaluate Robert Shiller's forecast? (That Bitcoin is a Bubble)
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 82%. (I'm a bot)
My point is that when people predict that bitcoin type investments are bubbles, they are usually going to appear to be correct in retrospect, even if bubbles do not exist. Shiller is convinced bitcoin is a bubble and he is bemused by the fascination surrounding digital currencies. Back in December Forbes put Shiller's work to the test, comparing his findings with the bitcoin bubble. Forbes contributor Tim Worstall argued that preventing a bubble from forming in the bitcoin market is not easy, since the market is not developed and lacks many tools needed to detect a bubble. Most bubble calls for assets with highly asymmetric returns will look "Correct" in retrospect, even if markets are 100% efficient and bubbles do not actually exist. So which prediction do we hold him accountable for? If Bitcoin falls in half over the next 12 months, does that prove his 2017 prediction correct, or does it show his 2014 call to be incorrect? How do we evaluate the record of bubble forecasters who keep making one bubble call after another, until the highly volatile asset finally has a big price drop?
The Bollinger Bands are a classic technical indicator often used to signal important levels and market volatility. The volume in the Bitcoin market has dropped alongside the slow market, reaching the “end of the line,” as one analyst put it: “Volume trend reaching end of the line. All closes outside local ranges were fakeouts. Watch for this behaviour to break – good odds it’ll ... Bitcoin’s volatility has been eerily low over recent weeks. As Bitcoinist has covered extensively, indicators tracking the metric have plunged to multi-month lows as BTC has been caught between $8,500 and $10,000.. On July 3rd, a trader shared the image below, showing Bitcoin’s historical volatility index (one-day, BitMEX) over the past two years. . The chart shows that the index is at its ... Bitcoin’s volatility has been eerily low over recent weeks. As Bitcoinist has covered extensively, indicators tracking the metric have plunged to multi-month lows as BTC has been caught between $8,500 and $10,000.. On July 3rd, a trader shared the image below, showing Bitcoin’s historical volatility index (one-day, BitMEX) over the past two years. Bitcoin’s volatility has been eerily low over recent weeks. As Bitcoinist has covered extensively, indicators tracking the metric have plunged to multi-month lows as BTC has been caught between $8,500 and $10,000. On July 3rd, a trader shared the image below, showing Bitcoin’s historical volatility index (one-day, BitMEX) over the past two years. The chart shows that the index is at its ... Bitcoin is perhaps the most reliable cryptocurrency in the world. It does not leave the first line of all ratings, even here on Changelly, trading pairs with Bitcoin are leading.This is not surprising, because after going through all the ups and downs, Bitcoin has been the leader in the global crypto industry for more than 10 years.
Scary Bitcoin volatility $750M in BTC options set to ...
Pros And Cons of Bitcoin Volatility ... Professor Robert Shiller Talks Market Psychology, Bitcoin And More (Full) CNBC - Duration: 7:50. CNBC 19,158 views. 7:50. Former CIA Officer Will Teach ... Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University, discusses valuations, the Fed and more with Sara Eisen. » Subscribe to CNBC: http://cnb.cx/Subscri... Cryptologic India is a Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis Channel. 🇮🇳 ⭐️ ByBit Exchange ⭐️ ( FREE $90.00 Bonus ) https://partner.bybit.com/b ... Yale University Sterling Professor of Economics Robert Shiller examines the market for Bitcoin and looks at why and how investors are attracted to the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is indeed a master of volatility, constantly changing its direction, with little rhyme or reason. In this video, we discuss how you can leverage parabolic moves across assets to increase ...